Climate variability and grain production in Scania, c. 1702–1911

Abstract. Scania (sw. Skåne), southern Sweden, offers a particularly interesting case for studying the historical relationship between climate variability and grain production, given the favourable natural conditions in terms of climate and soils for grain production, as well as the relative lack of heat-sensitive grain varieties like wheat in its production composition. In this article, I combine a contextual understanding of historical grain production in Scania, including historical, phenological and natural geographic aspects, with quantitative analysis of available empirical sources to estimate the relationship between climate variability and grain production between the years c. 1702–1911. The main result of this study is that grain production in Scania was primarily sensitive to climate variability during the high summer months of June and July, preferring relatively cool and humid conditions, and to some extent precipitation during the winter months, preferring relatively dry conditions. Furthermore, grain production was relatively insensitive to climate variability during the spring, autumn and harvest seasons. At the end of the study period, these relationships were shifting as the so-called early improved cultivars were being imported from other parts of Europe. Finally, I also shed new light on the climate history of the region, especially for the late 18th century, previously argued to be a particularly cold period, through homogenization of the early instrumental series from Lund (1753–1870).