Driving Forces of Corporate Capital Structure Variation Over Time

This paper develops a dynamic model of capital structure. It uses the model to determine whether shifts in the demand for capital or shifts in the supply of capital is the key driving force behind capital structure variation over time. Simulations of the model show that adjusting capital structure in response to variation in the supply of capital results in persistence of dividend and market leverage that is lower than the observed persistence in the data. When variation in the supply of capital is shut down, the persistence of dividend and market leverage of simulated firms is reasonably close to that in the data. The results suggest that shifts in the demand for capital are likely the key driving force behind capital structure variation over time.