Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues: A Long-Term Perspective

We conduct an empirical analysis of a hand-collected sample of 2,376 turnovers of soccer managers in the four major English leagues in the seasons from 1949/50 to 2007/08. While the relation between the probability of a manager being fired and long-term performance remained remarkably stable, both the absolute frequency and the sensitivity of firing decisions on the outcome of recent matches steadily and significantly increased during the six decades covered by our sample. This is likely to reflect the increased level of competition in and economic importance of the English soccer leagues.