尼日利亚天然气的利用和供应的可持续性

Charles Enweugwu, Aghogho Monorien, A. Dosunmu
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摘要

本研究的总体目标是调查尼日利亚在未来30年或更长时间内是否有足够的天然气来满足其国内和出口承诺。作为石油和天然气数据的保管人,这项研究对石油资源部(DPR)具有重要意义,并将帮助DPR制定确保可持续供应的政策计划。本研究采用Hubbert和Gaussian曲线拟合模型预测天然气产量,Logistic和Linear曲线拟合模型预测天然气利用率。案例2 Hubbert Logistic模型预测,2027年将出现生产和利用之间的缺口,天然气储量将在2150年耗尽。结果表明,如果不发现新储量和开发天然气基础设施,尼日利亚可能无法实现其天然气承诺
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Nigeria’s Natural Gas Utilization and Sustainability of Supply
The overall aim of this research is to investigate whether Nigeria has enough gas to meet her domestic and export commitments in the next 30 or more years. This study is significant to the Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR, as custodian of oil and gas data and would help the DPR develop a policy plan that will ensure sustainable supply. In this study, Hubbert and Gaussian curve fitting models were used for predicting natural gas production while Logistic and Linear curve fitting models were used for predicting natural gas utilization. The case 2 Hubbert Logistic model predicted that a gap between production and utilization would occurs in 2027 and natural gas reserves will become exhausted by the year 2150. Result showed that Nigeria may fail to meet its gas commitment without the discovery of new reserves and the development of gas infrastructure
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