长期收益,短期痛苦:评估智利结构改革的潜在影响

M. Santoro
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摘要

本文采用国际货币基金组织动态一般均衡模型(GIMF)研究了智利2015-18年结构性改革议程的潜在经济影响。我发现,该议程有可能显著提高智利的长期GDP,尽管它可能在短期内产生一些负面影响。确保平稳过渡到更高的生产潜力取决于三个关键方面:改革的可信度、改革在缩小结构性差距方面的有效性以及改革的实施速度。设计糟糕的改革,只能消除现有结构性差距的很小一部分,而且速度缓慢,缺乏可信度,可能会大大降低改革议程对GDP的积极影响。
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Long-Term Gain, Short-Term Pain: Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile
In this paper, I study the potential economic impact of the 2015-18 structural reform agenda in Chile, using the IMF dynamic general equilibrium model (GIMF). I find that the agenda has the potential to significantly increase Chile's long-run GDP, although it may have some negative effects in the short term. Ensuring a smooth transition to a higher productive potential depends on three key dimensions: the credibility of the reforms, their effectiveness in closing structural gaps, and their speed of implementation. Badly designed reforms that remove only a very small fraction of the existing structural gaps, at a slow speed, and with little credibility, can greatly reduce the positive impact of the reform agenda on GDP.
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