鱼雷桩参数对最终侵彻深度评估的影响

Leonardo Sant’Anna do Nascimento
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摘要

本文受到一个基本问题的影响:假设鱼雷桩在基本情况下发射,当控制不好时,哪些参数对桩的最终侵彻深度影响更大?为了回答这个问题,本研究采用了数值模拟和统计分析相结合的方法来量化这些参数的不确定性对最终侵彻深度的影响。从评估中,人们可以预期在发射过程中应更好地控制哪些参数的响应,以减少与目标深度有关的不确定性。为了研究的发展,采用了一种简化的动态数值分析方法,以便产生大量的数据进行统计处理。考虑了鱼雷堆的不确定性,生成了与鱼雷堆和发射场景相关的主要参数。考虑了蒙特卡罗方法,并采用统计处理来量化参数对最终侵彻深度的影响。结果表明,采用本文所述的简化方法可以同时模拟海底自由落体和打桩阶段,从而得到最终的侵彻深度。发现鱼雷质量是影响最终突防深度较大的物理参数。然而,研究表明,给定一个通过数值模拟评估的标准发射程序,物理参数的不确定性对最终穿透深度的影响远小于用于模拟土壤阻尼的假设和数据固有的不确定性。
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Influence of Torpedo Piles Parameters When Assessing Final Penetration Depths
This paper has been influenced by a basic question: assuming a torpedo pile launching in a base case scenario, which parameters, when not well controlled, would affect more the pile final penetration depth? Aiming to provide an answer to this question, the methodology adopted in this study assumes the application of numerical simulations and statistical analyses in order to quantify the influence of the uncertainties of such parameters in the final penetration depth. From the assessment, one may expect responses in terms of which parameters shall be better controlled during a launching procedure in order to reduce the uncertainties associated to the target depth. For the development of the study, a simplified approach for the dynamic numerical analyses has been adopted in order to allow a massive data generation for the statistical treatment. The main parameters associated to the torpedo pile and the launching scenario have been generated taking into account their uncertainties. The Monte Carlo method has been considered and statistical treatment has been applied to quantify the influence of the parameters in the final penetration depth. The results demonstrate that apply the simplified method described in the paper is adequate to simulate both the subsea free fall and the pile driving phases to obtain the final penetration depths. The torpedo mass has been found as the physical parameter which influences more the final penetration depth. However, the study demonstrates that, given a standard launching procedure assessed by numerical simulations, uncertainties on physical parameters are much less significant for the final penetration depth than the uncertainties inherent to the assumptions and data applied to simulate the soil damping.
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