发展中经济体的汇款、荷兰病和制造业增长

S. L. Daway‐Ducanes
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引用次数: 4

摘要

在过去四十年中,汇款的规模和经济重要性都有了巨大的增长,为经济体提供了额外的可支配收入,甚至起到了抵御经济衰退的缓冲作用。因此,我们有必要问一下,汇款是如何影响经济增长的,尤其是对制造业增长的影响。本文提出了一个通过“荷兰病”将汇款和制造业增长联系起来的简单模型。通道。在1992年至2016年56个发展中经济体的面板数据集上,我们使用Blundell和Bond(1998)的系统一般矩法验证了汇款对实际升值率较高的经济体的制造业增长产生不利影响。这一结果对于其他规范具有稳健性,例如纳入金融发展指标,扩大样本以包括高收入经济体,以及使用不同的样本时期。
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Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth in Developing Economies
Remittances have grown tremendously in magnitude and economic importance in the past four decades, providing economies with additional disposable incomes and even serving as buffers against economic downturns. It is thus but fitting to ask how remittances have impacted on growth, particularly on manufacturing growth. This note presents a simple model linking remittances and manufacturing growth via a ‘Dutch Disease’ channel. Using Blundell and Bond's (1998) system general method of moments on a panel dataset of 56 developing economies from 1992 to 2016, we verify that remittances adversely affect manufacturing growth in economies that experience high real appreciation rates. This result is robust to alternate specifications, such as the inclusion of financial development indicators, the expansion of the sample to include high‐income economies, and the use of different sample periods.
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