基于GRACE总蓄水量和模型产品的非洲主要流域干旱事件识别

Ayman M. Elameen, Shuanggen Jin, D. Olago
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摘要

陆地蓄水在气候和水文过程中起着至关重要的作用。非洲重力恢复与气候试验(GRACE)开发的干旱指数在计算干旱指数时大多忽略了单个储水量分量的影响作用,从而可能低估或高估干旱特征。在本文中,我们提出了一个加权水储存亏缺指数,用于非洲主要河流流域(即尼罗河、刚果、尼日尔、赞比西河和橙河)的干旱评估,并考虑了每个TWS分量对干旱信号的贡献。利用分量贡献率作为权重,将GRACE数据与WaterGAP全球水文模型进行耦合。结果表明,不同储水组分对TWS变率的贡献存在显著差异,从而对干旱信号响应的开始和持续时间产生影响。尼罗河、刚果、尼日尔、赞比西河和奥兰治河最严重的干旱分别发生在2006年、2012年、2006年、2006年和2003年。尼日尔盆地出现了84个月以来持续时间最长的干旱。该研究表明,考虑干旱指数中各个组成部分的权重可以从GRACE中对非洲大流域的干旱进行更合理和现实的估计。
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Identification of Drought Events in Major Basins of Africa from GRACE Total Water Storage and Modeled Products
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a vital role in climatological and hydrological processes. Most of the developed drought indices from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Africa neglected the influencing roles of individual water storage components in calculating the drought index and thus may either underestimate or overestimate drought characteristics. In this paper, we proposed a Weighted Water Storage Deficit Index for drought assessment over the major river basins in Africa (i. e., Nile, Congo, Niger, Zambezi, and Orange) with accounting for the contribution of each TWS component on the drought signal. We coupled the GRACE data and WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model through utilizing the component contribution ratio as the weight. The results showed that water storage components demonstrated distinctly different contributions to TWS variability and thus drought signal response in onset and duration. The most severe droughts over the Nile, Congo, Niger, Zambezi, and Orange occurred in 2006, 2012, 2006, 2006, and 2003, respectively. The most prolonged drought of 84 months was observed over the Niger basin. This study suggests that considering the weight of individual components in the drought index provides more reasonable and realistic drought estimates over large basins in Africa from GRACE.
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