基于NGO-BILSTM的短期光伏发电预测

Jie Liu, Lanmei Cong, Hanchao Zhao, Ziyue Han, Zhengjie Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在短期光伏发电功率预测中,负荷预测的准确性会受到环境等外部因素变化的影响。本研究提出了结合双向长短期记忆(BILSTM)网络和北鹰优化(NGO)算法的NGO-BILSTM预测模型来解决这一问题。首先通过Pearson相关分析选择高相关性特征作为输入数据,然后利用NGO算法对BILSTM的超参数进行优化。然后根据优化后的参数建立NGO-BILSTM预测模型,并对数据集进行预测。实验预测结果表明,NGO-BILSTM模型的平均绝对误差、均方根误差和线性回归系数指数分别为1.434、1.809和0.972,均优于其他可比较模型,说明该模型的有效性。
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Short-Term PV Power Prediction Based on NGO-BILSTM
The accuracy of load forecasting can be impacted by changes in external elements, such as the environment, in short-term PV power forecasts. This research suggests the NGO-BILSTM prediction model, which combines the Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory (BILSTM) network and the Northern Goshawk Optimization (NGO) algorithm, to solve this issue. First, high correlation features are selected as input data by Pearson correlation analysis, then the hyperparameters of BILSTM are optimized by the NGO algorithm. The NGO-BILSTM prediction model is then established based on the optimized parameters, and the prediction is carried out on the dataset. The experimental prediction findings demonstrate that the NGO-BILSTM model's mean absolute error, root mean square error, and linear regression coefficient index are, respectively, 1.434, 1.809, and 0.972, which are better than those of other comparable models, demonstrating the model's efficacy.
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