乌克兰战争的经济和财政后果:发展情景分析

Marianna Bida, I. Ruda
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引用次数: 2

摘要

战争影响着乌克兰的社会经济状况,是导致周边国家经济形势恶化的原因。在这种情况下,有必要对进行军事行动所造成的经济损失进行评估,并在考虑到战争影响的情况下预测最近一段时期的主要经济指标。这项研究的目的是计算战争头100天对经济的损失、对住宅设施和关键基础设施的破坏、对国内生产总值潜在下降量的评估以及预计财政损失的计算。国内生产总值减少的计算是根据国际货币基金组织、世界银行集团和乌克兰政府的预测。GDP的预期减少量是根据这些机构在战前时期的预测和战时GDP水平的计算,使用差距分析法计算得出的。根据所进行的研究结果,可以确定,战争造成的经济损失不仅包括造成的损失和国内生产总值的减少,还包括失去的发展机会和未获得的利润。除了国内生产总值的减少外,乌克兰的损失还表现在公共债务水平的增加、本国货币的贬值、黄金和货币储备的减少以及外国直接投资的流出3。
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Economic and financial consequences of war in Ukraine: analysis of development scenarios
Abstract The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The purpose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facilities and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculated using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the prewar period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was established that the economic losses from the war consist not only of the losses incurred and the reduction of GDP volumes, but also of the lost opportunities for development and unearned profits. In addition to the reduction in GDP, Ukraine’s losses are manifested in the increase in the level of public debt, the depreciation of the national currency, the reduction of gold and currency reserves, and the outflow of foreign direct investments3.
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