金融政策对苏丹通货膨胀率的影响(1989-2010)

Issam A.W. Mohamed
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摘要

本文的主要重点是分析金融政策对通货膨胀率的影响。分析依赖于时间序列数据,分为理论分析框架和应用分析框架。运用计量经济模型来反映财政政策与通货膨胀之间的关系。因此,更多地揭示了这样一个事实,即第一个因素在经济政策和宏观经济参数的框架内对经济表现有很大影响。分析框架假设政府支出和税收所代表的财政政策组成部分的自变量与因变量通货膨胀之间存在正相关关系。结果表明,总税收与通货膨胀率之间存在负相关关系。这意味着提高税收可以降低通货膨胀率,这是通过抑制总消费来假设的。然而,在已经根深蒂固的贫穷的不发达经济体中,这种消费率被降到最低,超出了标准。结果表明,政府支出与通货膨胀率之间存在正相关关系。赤字融资是政府弥补实际资源与所需资源之间差距的一种徒劳的解决方案。这促使人们得出结论,降低通货膨胀率的过程应该从最小化政府支出和采取紧缩措施开始。结果与经济理论一致,而通货膨胀与预算制定相关,预算制定取决于赤字融资因素,这可能会在公共预算的假设资源和实际资源之间造成真正的差距。
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The Impacts of Financial Policies on Inflation Rates in Sudan (1989-2010)
The main focus of the present paper is to analyze the impacts of financial policy on inflation rates. The analysis depended on time series data and was divided into theoretical and applied analytical framework. An econometric model was utilized to reflect the relations between financial policy and inflation. Thus, more lights are shed on the fact that the first has great effects on the economic performance within the frame of economic policy and macroeconomic parameters. The analytical framework assumed that there are positive relationships between the independent variables of financial policy components represented in governmental expenditure and taxation and the dependant variable inflation. The results show that there is a negative correlation between total taxation and inflation rates. That means that raising taxes reduces inflation rate which is assumed by suppressing total consumption. However, in underdeveloped economies which already have entrenched poverty such consumption rates are minimized beyond the norms. Moreover, the results show that there is positive correlation between governmental expenditure and inflation rates. Deficit financing is a futile solution for the government to cover gaps between actual resources and the required ones. That instigates the conclusion that reducing inflation rates process should start by minimizing governmental expenditures and adopting austerity measures. The results coincides with the economic theory whereas inflation is correlated with the budgetary formulation which depends on deficit financing factor that may create real gaps between assumed and actual resources for the public budget.
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