火源确立研究的回顾性分析

I. Lobaev, V. Pleshakov, V. R. Dzhugan
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摘要

介绍。火灾发生地点的确定是火灾技术鉴定的主要方向之一。尽管自21世纪初以来,致力于建立火源主题的研究工作的生产力有所提高,但现代方法并不能提供解决问题的足够准确性,并且火源通常定位在与确定房间壁炉坐标的准确性相关的不合理的大误差中。本文对火灾探测领域最重要的研究进行了简要概述,旨在确定这一主题领域的发展方向,最终可以优化研究过程,确定最合理的工作领域,分配资源并调节未来专家错误的风险。目标和目的。分析的目的是考虑火源领域研究的综合问题。这项研究的目的是客观地评价建立火源的方法方法,确定其建立的缺点,并为制定建立火源的新方法奠定基础。方法。对火灾技术鉴定过程中确定火源问题的研究进行了回顾性分析。在分析期间,执行了下列任务:选择和准备进行分析审查所需的数据;信息分析;对确立火源的方法学方法的发展方向有一个合理的认识,并在进行回顾性分析的基础上得出结论。结果和讨论。它是在什么时候出现的,它是如何表现出来的,火领域研究的组织和内容的问题是不断变化的。自21世纪初以来,火灾危险动力学的数学建模使得在火源位置的初始数据发生显著变化的情况下,扩大预测结果的可能性成为可能,这将提高研究的有效性。结论。21世纪第二个十年的特点是,俄罗斯在数学模型和实际火灾数据研究结果的比较基础上,集中开展了建立火源的新有效方法的工作。关键词:回顾性分析,火源,信息处理方法,消防专业知识,火灾隐患
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Retrospective analysis of studies on the establishment of the fire source
Introduction. The establishment of the place of occurrence of a fire is one of the main directions of fire-technical expertise. Despite the fact that since the beginning of the XXI century, the productivity of research works devoted to the topic of establishing a fire source has increased, the modern approach does not provide sufficient accuracy of solving the problem, and the fire source is often localized with an unreasonably large error associated with the accuracy of determining the coordinates of the hearth in the room. The brief overview of the most significant studies in the field of fire detection given in the article is aimed at determining the direction of the development of ideas about this subject area, which will eventually make it possible to optimize the research processes, determine the most rational areas of work, allocate resources and regulate the risks of expert errors in the future. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the analysis is to consider the comprehensive problems of research in the field of fire source. The objectives of the study are to objectively assess the methodological approach to the establishment of a fire source, to identify the shortcomings of its establishment and to form the basis for the development of new approaches to the establishment of a fire source. Methods. A retrospective analysis of studies on the problems of establishing a fire source during fire-technical expertise was carried out. During the analysis, the following tasks were performed: selection and preparation of the necessary data for conducting an analytical review; analysis of information; a reasonable idea of the direction of development of the methodological approach to establishing the fire source, as well as the preparation of conclusions based on the conducted retrospective analysis. Results and their discussion. It is determined at what time it appeared, how it manifested itself and the question of the organization and content of research in the field of fire was changing. Since the beginning of the XXI century, mathematical modeling of the dynamics of fire hazards makes it possible to expand the possibilities of predicting results with a significant variation in the initial data on the location of the fire source, which will increase the effectiveness of the study. Conclusions. The second decade of the XXI century is characterized by the intensive development in Russia of works on the creation of new effective methods for establishing a fire source based on the comparison of the results of the study of mathematical models and actual fire data. Keywords: retrospective analysis, fire source, information processing method, fire-technical expertise, fire hazards
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