一个通用的终端宏观仿真模型,用于测量操作性能

S. M. Protic, M. Gronalt
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引用次数: 0

摘要

与多式联运码头发展有关的战略决策具有高度的复杂性。码头运营商需要应对不确定性和长期决策的潜在连锁影响。本文的目的是提出一个终端运行性能的通用系统动力学(SD)模型。动态系统具有复杂的反馈结构、非线性过程、不确定性和时滞等特点。在引入定性因果循环图(CLD)之后,将基本假设转换为定量库存-流量(S&F)模型。对其主要组成部分及其输入数据进行了说明。通用模型可以用作决策支持工具,以弥合从详细视图到对长期后果的理解之间的差距。它提供了多个应用领域,下面将简要讨论。
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A generic terminal macro simulation model for measuring operational performance
Strategic decision making linked to the development of intermodal transport terminals is marked by high complexity. Terminal operators need to cope with uncertainties and potential cascading impacts of decisions which were taken a long time ago. The aim of this paper is to present a generic System Dynamics (SD) model of a terminal’s operational performance. SD is used to capture a holistic view on a dynamic system, which is characterized by complex feedback structures, nonlinear processes, uncertainties and time delays. After introducing the qualitative Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), the underlying hypotheses are transposed into a quantitative Stock-and-Flow (S&F) model. The main components and its input data are explained. The generic model can be used as a decision support tool to bridge the gap from a detailed view to an understanding of longterm consequences. It offers multiple areas of application, which are briefly discussed.
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