Global sea-level budget and ocean-mass budget, with focus on advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation

Abstract. Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and the global ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributions. Here we present datasets for times series of the SLB and OMB elements developed in the framework of ESA's Climate Change Initiative. We use these datasets to assess the SLB and the OMB simultaneously, utilising a consistent framework of uncertainty characterisation. The time series, given at monthly sampling, include global mean sea-level (GMSL) anomalies from satellite altimetry; the global mean steric component from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data; the ocean mass component from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravimetry; the contribution from global glacier mass changes assessed by a global glacier model; the contribution from Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes, assessed from satellite radar altimetry and from GRACE; and the contribution from land water storage anomalies assessed by the WaterGAP global hydrological model. Over the period Jan 1993–Dec 2016 (P1, covered by the satellite altimetry records), the mean rate (linear trend) of GMSL is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm yr−1. The steric component is 1.15 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (38 % of the GMSL trend) and the mass component is 1.75 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (57 %). The mass component includes 0.64 ± 0.03 mm yr−1 (21 % of the GMSL trend) from glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica, 0.60 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (20 %) from Greenland, 0.19 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (6 %) from Antarctica, and 0.32 ± 0.10 mm yr−1 (10 %) from changes of land water storage. In the period Jan 2003–Aug 2016 (P2, covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system), GMSL rise is higher than in P1 at 3.64 ± 0.26 mm yr−1. This is due to an increase of the mass contributions (now about 2.22 ± 0.15 mm yr−1, 61 % of the GMSL trend), with the largest increase contributed from Greenland. The SLB of linear trends is closed for P1 and P2, that is, the GMSL trend agrees with the sum of the steric and mass components within their combined uncertainties. The OMB budget, which can be evaluated only for P2, is also closed, that is, the GRACE-based ocean-mass trend agrees with the sum of assessed mass contributions within uncertainties. Combined uncertainties (1-sigma) of the elements involved in the budgets are between 0.26 and 0.40 mm yr−1, about 10 % of GMSL rise. Interannual variations that overlie the long-term trends are coherently represented by the elements of the SLB and the OMB. Even at the level of monthly anomalies the budgets are closed within uncertainties, while also indicating possible origins of remaining misclosures.