美国陆军导弹健康监测的投资回报潜力

David R. Simmons, S. Marotta
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摘要

健康监测技术和故障预测能力的应用可以潜在地提高美国陆军导弹维持的效率和有效性。维持功能贯穿武器的整个生命周期,并跨越不同陆军导弹的频谱,如野外测试、实验室测试、检查、倒退、维护、可靠性改进和供应功能,为在成本和性能方面改善维持现状提供了许多机会。然而,新技术解决方案必须积累与度量相关的好处,例如总生命周期成本,以及其他就绪类型的度量,例如报告准确性、及时性、不确定性和其他因素。与开发和部署所需的前期投资相比,运行状况监视和故障预测的应用程序必须提供可接受的高回报。考虑到这些限制条件,只有对现有的、新兴的和新技术进行最具创新性和设计良好的应用才能满足环境要求,尽管人们非常希望整体的持续改进。本文中的信息旨在从概念上描述美国陆军的导弹后勤和供应,以便针对具体过程提供可行有效的技术解决方案,从而提供最大的可量化效果。本文还将简要介绍目前正在进行的针对投资回报率(ROI)风险的应用研究,从而更好地实现技术转型。
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Return-on-Investment potential for US Army missile health monitoring
Application of health monitoring technology and the capability to predict failures can potentially improve the efficiency and effectiveness of US Army missile sustainment. Sustainment functions throughout the weapon's lifecycle and across the spectrum of different Army missiles such as field testing, lab testing, inspections, retrograde, maintenance, reliability improvements, and supply functions offer many opportunities to better the sustainment status quo in both cost and performance. New technology solutions must however accrue benefits associated with metrics such as total life cycle cost, as well as other readiness-type metrics such as reporting accuracy, timeliness, uncertainty, and other factors. Application of health monitoring and failure prediction must provide an acceptably high return in benefits as compared to the investments needed upfront for development and deployment. Given those constraints, only the most innovative and well engineered applications of existing, emerging, and new technology will suffice in context even though overall sustainment improvements are highly desired. The information in this paper is intended to notionally describe the US Army's missile logistics and supply such that feasible and effective technology solutions can be targeted at specific processes, and thereby provide maximal quantifiable effect. The paper will also briefly address applied research currently being conducted that targets Return-on-Investment (ROI) risks and thereby better enable technology transition.
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