Using Earned Value Data to Forecast the Duration of Department of Defense Space Acquisition Programs

Traditional earned value management techniques to predict final costs of space acquisition programs are historically inaccurate. A 2015 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (Keaton 2015) sought to improve the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion for space system contracts through a linear relationship between budgeted cost for work performed and time. That study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying schedule duration estimate was accurate. This research expands upon the previous research through an improved duration estimation methodology. Next, we incorporate our duration methodology into various estimate at complete models to derive a more accurate estimate at complete for space acquisition programs. Our methods improve the accuracy by 6.5% over existing methods. The results offer an alternative approach to schedule duration estimates and earned value estimate at complete calculations that may be useful to cost analysts and program managers.