计算智能技术在美国部分州能源负荷和电价预测中的应用

J. C. Mourão, A. Ruano
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文的目的是提前49小时预测负荷和电价。为了实现这些目标,使用了计算智能技术,特别是人工神经网络和遗传算法。使用的神经网络是rbf(径向基函数),完全连接并且只有一个隐藏层。使用的遗传算法是MOGA(多目标遗传算法),顾名思义,它最小化的不是单个目标,而是多个目标。神经网络被提前一步训练,它的输出是反馈,直到49小时被计算出来。MOGA用于输入选择和拓扑确定。所使用的数据由美国奥本大学提供,并参考了来自北美一些州的真实数据。
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Application of Computation Intelligence Techniques for Energy Load and Price Forecast in some States of USA
The purpose of this paper is to forecast the load and the price of electricity, 49 hours ahead. To accomplish these goals, computational intelligence techniques were used, specifically artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. The neural networks employed are RBFs (radial basis functions), fully connected and with just one hidden layer. The genetic algorithm used was MOGA (multiple objective genetic algorithm), which, as the name indicates, minimizes not a single objective but several. The neural networks are trained for one step ahead, and its output is feedback until 49 hours are calculated. MOGA is used for the input selection and for topology determination. The data used was kindly given by the University of Auburn, USA, and refers to real data from some North-American states.
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