A STATISTICAL METHOD TO PREDICT THE SHAPE OF AN EMBANKMENT COLLAPSE DUE TO THE EARTHQUAKE

Regarding embankment collapses due to earthquakes, there are various shapes. Therefore, it is essential to predict failure patterns of the embankment collapses to determine effective countermeasures. In addition, a result of prediction of failure patterns of the embankment collapses is applicable to a risk evaluation model, which determines priorities and countermeasure methods of disaster prevention for existing railway em-bankments. Accordingly, we analyzed using Hayashi’s quantification methods to previous data of the railway embankment collapses due to earthquakes, and developed a method capable of predicting failure patterns of the embankment collapses from various embankment conditions.