Forecasting scientific and technological development as a basis for the formation of the digital economy

The transition to the next technological order, a radical change in the organization of industrial production leads to the formation of a new "intellectual economy", which opens new directions of economic growth, increases the economic efficiency of production and expands the possibilities of consumption, creating new areas of economic activity. Currently, Russia is significantly inferior to the leading countries of economic development in terms of the rate and quality of economic growth. The main reason is that the country has formed a dead-end export-raw material economic model based on increasing fuel and raw material exports. In this regard, scientific understanding of organizational and methodological problems of forming a technological basis for economic growth of the Russian economy in the context of global transformation of the world system of division of labor is one of the most important fundamental tasks facing Russian economic science. It is necessary to understand that the formation of the digital economy is possible only if there is a certain basis, expressed in the current level of scientific and technological development of the state. At the same time, its forecast estimates are necessary to understand in which direction it is necessary to move in order to provide conditions for ensuring a faster pace of formation of the digital economy. The article considers the theoretical aspects of modeling scientific and technological development, analyzes the existing experience and methodological developments in the field of modeling various indicators that characterize science and technology, offers a mathematical model of evaluation, as well as indicators for interpreting the obtained values into economic phenomena.