金融转移对欧盟和欧元区内部再分配和风险分担的影响

T. Pavlov, D. Kostov
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摘要

欧洲财政政策的有效性对共同体未来的经济表现尤其重要,特别是在危机时期,由于两极分化的公众舆论和专家批评。本研究试图确定欧盟内部集中的金融转移所产生的再分配和风险分担效应。我们调查了2000-2021年期间欧盟(28)国家的更广泛样本,以及大多数关于该问题的研究中使用的欧元区国家。为了最大限度地提高分析的客观性,采用了传统的回归方法和PMG模型。研究结果表明,在低于1%的水平下,长期的再分配实际上是不存在的。在某些情况下,价值甚至是负的,这是一个有趣的(但并非未经证实的)发现,在这样一个敏感问题的背景下,如EA和EU内部的财富永久转移。预算转移在欧盟实现了11%的风险分担效果,在欧洲经委会实现了29%的风险分担效果。风险分担水平与一些成熟的财政联盟相当,甚至更好。这证明,尽管存在一些批评,欧盟仍有能力成功实施其预期的政策。
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Effects of financial transfers on redistribution and risk sharing within the EU and the Euro Area
The effectiveness of European fiscal policies is of particular importance for the future economic performance of the community especially during times of crisis due to polarized public opinion and expert criticism.  This study attempts to identify the redistributive and risk-sharing effects resulting from centralized financial transfers within the EU.  We investigate a broader sample of EU (28) countries during 2000-2021 in addition to the Euro area countries used in most studies on the issue.  Traditional regression methods and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model were used in order to maximize the objectivity of the analysis. The study’s results show that long-term redistribution is virtually absent with levels below 1%.  In some cases, the values are even negative which is an interesting (but not unattested) finding in the context of such a sensitive issue as the permanent shift of wealth within the EA and EU. Budget transfers achieved a risk-sharing effect of 11% for the EU and 29% for the EA. Risk sharing levels are comparable and even better than those of some fully-fledged fiscal federations. This is an attestation to the capacity of the EU to successfully implement its intended policies despite some criticism.
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