中国房地产泡沫,成因及未来预期/对策

J. Salim, Y. Ren, X. Fang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

中国经济仍在快速增长(2016年第三季度GDP年增长率为6.7%)。改革开放后,中国的城市化和现代化程度不断提高,但另一方面,资产市场的繁荣(尤其是房地产市场的繁荣)引发了经济学家和金融专家的焦虑。什么是房地产泡沫或繁荣?房地产繁荣的原因是什么?房地产价格有什么趋势吗?如果泡沫破裂,对中国经济的影响是什么?如何防止资产泡沫的扩大,或者说,中国央行在货币政策上应该采取哪些防范措施和积极措施来纵容泡沫的扩大?本文将探讨房地产泡沫产生的原因,以及如何利用自回归(AR)和自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型来解决房地产泡沫。
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Real Estate Bubbles in China, Causes and Future Expectations/Solutions
China is still experiencing rapid economic growth (with GDP annual growth rate 6.7% in Q3 2016). While China is becoming more urbanized and modernized after the reform period, one can witness from the other side, the asset market boom (especially real estate boom) which triggers anxiety to economists and financial experts. What is the real estate bubble or boom? What are the causes of real estate exuberance? Is there a trend in the real estate prices? If the bubble burst then what are the glimpse consequences on china’s economy? How can we prevent the asset bubbles from growing or in other words, what are the precautions and proactive ways central bank of China should take concerning the monetary policy to condone the bubble’s growth? This paper will shed-light on the causes of this real estate bubble and how to solve it using autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models.
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