多种证券的需求定价模拟

Ming Liu, B. Nelson, J. Staum
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引用次数: 9

摘要

我们开发了一个序贯实验设计程序,在单一随机模拟模型的基础上构建多个元模型。我们应用这个程序来近似许多证券的价格作为金融情景的函数。我们提出了一种交叉验证方法,该方法增加了设计点和设计点的模拟工作,以针对所有元模型的相对预测误差。为了提高元模型的预期质量,给定作为仿真模型输入的随机场景,我们还提出了一种选择设计点的方法,使场景可能落在它们的凸包内。
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Simulation on demand for pricing many securities
We develop a sequential experiment design procedure to construct multiple metamodels based on a single stochastic simulation model. We apply the procedure to approximate many securities' prices as functions of a financial scenario. We propose a cross-validation method that adds design points and simulation effort at the design points to target all metamodels' relative prediction errors. To improve the expected quality of the metamodels given randomness of the scenario that is an input to the simulation model, we also propose a way to choose design points so that the scenario is likely to fall inside their convex hull.
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