如何应对巴基斯坦的核胁迫

C. C. Fair
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摘要

考虑到巴基斯坦的战略承诺和美国和印度决策者的风险规避,这些国家有什么选择来具体或更广泛地处理巴基斯坦依赖恐怖主义作为关键外交政策工具的问题?诚然,选择很少,而且并非没有风险。在本章中,我列出了三大类选择:维持现状;通过加强反恐努力和领导层斩首来处理虔诚军的狭隘问题;并制定一套新的强制性政策,以破坏巴基斯坦迄今为止成功的核胁迫战略。印度不能强迫巴基斯坦自己停止使用恐怖主义作为一种政策工具;相反,美国将不得不在这一努力中承担最沉重的负担。然而,即使美国根据其历史记录拒绝采取这一行动,印度也有重要的——如果有限的——行动空间
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Dealing with Let and Escaping Pakistan’s Nuclear Coercion
Given Pakistan's strategic commitments and the risk aversion of policy-makers in the United States and India, what options exist for these states to deal with LeT specifically, or more generally, the problem of Pakistan's reliance upon terrorism as a key foreign policy tool? Admittedly, the options are few and not without risk. In this chapter, I lay out three broad sets of options: maintain the status quo; manage the narrow problem of LeT through enhanced counter-terrorism efforts and leadership decapitation; and develop a new complement of compellent policies to undermine Pakistan's heretofore successful nuclear coercion strategy. India cannot compel Pakistan to cease and desist from using terrorism as a tool of policy on its own; rather, the United States will have to assume the heaviest burden in this effort. However, there is important--if limited--space for Indian action even if the United States, per its historical record, declines to pursue this course of action
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