俄罗斯行人死亡率:过去25年持续下降?

A. Pyankova, T. Fattakhov
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摘要

使用不同的数据来源(HCoD, IRTAD, UNECE统计数据库,警察数据),我们的研究表明,根据RusFMD, 1988-1999年俄罗斯行人死亡率显著高于机动车乘员死亡率是一种异常现象,很可能从未发生过。在俄罗斯按道路使用者类型评估死亡率水平时,警方数据更为可取。根据俄罗斯警方的数据,行人死亡率从未超过机动车乘员死亡率。重要统计数据显示,行人死亡率的稳步下降始于2003年,而不是1993年。2008年,行人死亡率首次降至苏联时期的最低水平。经过大幅波动后,仅在2015-2017年,机动车乘员死亡率才降至20世纪70年代初的水平。如果有必要按性别、年龄和住区类型区分道路交通死亡率,可以使用生命统计数据。在按道路使用者类别分类时,应谨慎使用以下数据来源:一九八八年的道路使用者死亡率数据,以及一九七零至一九八八年及一九九九年以后的道路使用者死亡率数据。据认为,在使用苏联简略死因分类的后苏联国家,根据生命统计数据按道路使用者类型分析长期死亡率可能会遇到困难。还应考虑由未指定的v码(V89)编码的死亡流行率。
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Pedestrian mortality in Russia: a continuous decline over the last 25 years?
Using different data sources (HCoD, IRTAD, UNECE statistical database, police data), our research shows that the significant excess of pedestrian mortality over motor vehicle occupant mortality in 1988-1999 in Russia, according to RusFMD, is an abnormal phenomenon that most likely never occurred. Police data is preferable for assessing mortality levels by road user types in Russia. According to Russian police data, pedestrian mortality never exceeded motor vehicle occupant mortality. The steady decline of pedestrian mortality began in 2003, not in 1993, as vital statistics show. In 2008, pedestrian mortality for the first time reached the minimum level of the Soviet period. After significant fluctuations, motor vehicle occupant mortality dropped to the level of the early 1970s only in 2015-2017. The use of vital statistics is possible if it is necessary to differentiate road traffic mortality by sex, age, and type of settlements. Categorisation by road user types should be done with caution, using the following data sources: HCoD data from 1988 and RusFMD data from 1970 to 1988 and after 1999. It is suggested that difficulties in analysing long-term mortality by road user types based on vital statistics may occur in post-Soviet countries, where the Soviet abridged classification of causes of death (SC) was used. The prevalence of deaths coded by unspecified V-codes (V89) should also be considered.
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