联合风力发电厂和储氢电站的价值评估:决策树方法

M. Schuster, T. Walther
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引用次数: 8

摘要

本文分析了风力发电厂与氢储存相结合的盈利能力。我们用50兆瓦的装置区分海上和陆上地点。储存单元的氢气既可以用于再电气化,也可以直接销售。该研究分析了在不同情况下发电厂和氢储存相结合的盈利能力。利用决策树法对盈利能力进行测度。这种方法允许在各种情况下组合不同的贴现现金流量计算路径,并考虑投资决策的不确定性。我们的结果表明,在我们的框架(德国)的任何情况下,再电气化都是无利可图的。相反,根据基本参数,无论发电厂在哪里,氢气的批发都可以带来正回报。
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Valuation of combined wind power plant and hydrogen storage: A decision tree approach
This article analyses the profitability of a wind power plant in combination with a hydrogen storage. We distinguish between off- and on-shore locations with a 50 MW unit. The hydrogen of the storage unit can be used to either be re-electrified or directly marketed. The study analyses the profitability of a combination of power-plant and hydrogen storages under different scenarios. The profitability is measured by means of the Decision Tree Approach. This approach allows combining different paths of Discounted Cash Flow calculations under various scenarios and accounts for uncertainties of investment decisions. Our results show that re-electrification is not profitable under any scenario in our framework (Germany). On the contrary, wholesale of hydrogen can lead to positive returns, depending on the underlying parameters, regardless of the location of the power plant.
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