{"title":"概率匹配的次优性——一个形式证明、图形分析和脉冲平衡解释","authors":"Vittorio Larocca, L. Panaccione","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3618688","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The objective of the paper is to study how the tax burden arising from an exogenWe prove suboptimality of probability matching in prediction tasks with an arbitrary (finite) number of outcomes and repetitions. For the popular case of binary prediction tasks, we also provide a graphical representation of the result. Finally, we relate probability matching to impulse balance equilibrium theory and show when probability matching is consistent with its predictions.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Suboptimality of Probability Matching − a Formal Proof, a Graphical Analysis and an Impulse Balance Interpretation\",\"authors\":\"Vittorio Larocca, L. Panaccione\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3618688\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The objective of the paper is to study how the tax burden arising from an exogenWe prove suboptimality of probability matching in prediction tasks with an arbitrary (finite) number of outcomes and repetitions. For the popular case of binary prediction tasks, we also provide a graphical representation of the result. Finally, we relate probability matching to impulse balance equilibrium theory and show when probability matching is consistent with its predictions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":416571,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series\",\"volume\":\"40 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-06-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3618688\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3618688","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Suboptimality of Probability Matching − a Formal Proof, a Graphical Analysis and an Impulse Balance Interpretation
The objective of the paper is to study how the tax burden arising from an exogenWe prove suboptimality of probability matching in prediction tasks with an arbitrary (finite) number of outcomes and repetitions. For the popular case of binary prediction tasks, we also provide a graphical representation of the result. Finally, we relate probability matching to impulse balance equilibrium theory and show when probability matching is consistent with its predictions.
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