A temporal assessment of cyber intrusion chains using multidisciplinary frameworks and methodologies

Current approaches to cybersecurity are response-driven and ineffective as they do not account for adaptive adversarial behavior and dynamic decision-making. Using empirical evidence of observations done at the US Industrial Control Systems Computer Emergency Response Team's (ICS-CERT) Red Team-Blue Team cybersecurity training exercise held at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), this paper identifies how adversaries carry out, and adapt during, cyberattacks. This paper employs a unique mixed methods approach of qualitative observations and quantitative data science to address three objectives: (i) providing a quantitative framework for temporal analysis of the cyberattack processes by creating a time series representation of the qualitative data, (ii) employing data science methods, such as hierarchical clustering analysis, on the generated time series data to complement and supplement our understanding of cyberattack processes, and (iii) understanding how adversaries adapt during the disruptions by defenders.