海岸带全球变化脆弱性研究进展

Li Gui-shan
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摘要

由于全球气候变化及其影响,海岸带是未来最脆弱的地区之一。为进一步认识海岸带脆弱性,制定应对全球变化不利影响的措施,IPCC鼓励沿海地区国家对海岸带脆弱性进行评估。在相关研究的基础上,对沿海脆弱性的概念和脆弱性评价进行了探讨。根据IPCC的CZMS(1992),沿海脆弱性被定义为“无法应对气候变化和海平面加速上升的后果的程度”。海岸带处于陆地与海洋的过渡地带,是人口最密集的地区,因此容易受到全球变化的影响。保持身体恢复能力,实现可持续发展管理是解决问题的关键。近年来,了解脆弱性程度,研究科学管理。许多国家和地区已根据IPCC的常用方法进行了脆弱性评估。本文还介绍了常用的脆弱性评价方法和目前海岸脆弱性评价的主要成果。同时,提出了海岸带对全球变化响应的精确建模研究、海岸带脆弱性综合评价方法、海岸带脆弱性动态评价方法以及海岸带脆弱性研究中更广泛的合作等进一步的研究内容。
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THE ADVANCE IN STUDIES ON COASTAL VULNERABILITY TO GLOBAL CHANGE
Due to the global changing and its impacts, the coast zone is one of the most vulnerable area in the future. To make a further understanding to the coast vulnerability and make measures for avoiding the adverse impacts of global changing, the IPCC stimulated the countries with coast area to assess the vulnerability of their coast zone. Based on the related studies, the coastal vulnerability concept and the vulnerability assessments is discussed in this paper. Following the IPCC CZMS (1992), the coastal vulnerability is defined as "The degree of incapability to cope with the consequences of climate change and accelerated sea-level rise". Because coast zone located the transitional area between land and sea and is the area with the densest population, the coastal zones are susceptible to global change. To maintain the ability of physical resilience and realize the sustainable development management is the key to solve the problem. Recently, to understand the vulnerability degree and study the science management. The vulnerability assessment have been done in lots of countries and regions according to the common method of IPCC. This paper also describes the common method of vulnerability assessment and the main results of present coast vulnerability assessment. At the same time, the further study content are put forward, that is the accurate modeling study on coast response to global change, the methods of integrated coast vulnerability assessment, dynamic vulnerability assessment methods and more extensive cooperation in coast vulnerability study.
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