马尔可夫影响图能从历史停电数据中模拟级联弹性吗?

Kai Zhou, I. Dobson, Zhaoyu Wang
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引用次数: 5

摘要

极端事件对电力传输系统造成初始破坏后的级联线路中断的模拟具有挑战性。我们建议使用由历史效用数据驱动的马尔可夫影响图来对级联进行采样,而不是基于模型的模拟。抽样方法包含了对停电风险有很大贡献的罕见的大级联。这种建议的新方法有助于对由标准公用事业数据驱动的级联线路中断进行高级模拟。
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Can the Markovian influence graph simulate cascading resilience from historical outage data?
It is challenging to simulate the cascading line outages that can follow initial damage to the electric power transmission system from extreme events. Instead of model-based simulation, we propose using a Markovian influence graph driven by historical utility data to sample the cascades. The sampling method encompasses the rare, large cascades that contribute greatly to the blackout risk. This suggested new approach contributes a high-level simulation of cascading line outages that is driven by standard utility data.
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