[Regular Paper] Interpretable Prediction of Vascular Diseases from Electronic Health Records via Deep Attention Networks

Precise prediction of severe diseases resulting in mortality is one of the main issues in medical fields. Even if pathological and radiological measurements provide competitive precision, they usually require large costs of time and expense to obtain and analyze the data for prediction. Recently, end-to-end approaches based on deep neural networks have been proposed, however, they still suffer from the low classification performance and difficulties of interpretation. In this study, we propose a novel disease prediction method, EHAN (EHR History-based prediction using Attention Network), based on the recurrent neural network (RNN) and attention mechanism. The proposed method incorporates (1) a bidirectional gated recurrent units (GRU) for automated sequential modeling, (2) attention mechanism for improving long-term dependence modeling, (3) RNN-based gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) to visualize the class specific attention-weights. We conducted the experiments to predict the occurrence of risky disease containing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases from more than 40,000 hypertension patients' electronic health records (EHR). The results showed that the proposed method outperformed the state-of-the-art model with respect to the various performance metrics. Furthermore, we confirmed that the proposed visualizing methods can be used to assist data-driven discovery.