发达经济体货币政策对印度黄金价格动态的影响

Ms. Jessica Maria Anthony, Shri Ramesh Kr. Gupta., Ms. Sona Chinngaihlian
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摘要

在许多经济体中,黄金仍然是一种充满活力的投资工具,在危机时期被视为避风港。美国经济的庞大规模,以及由此产生的任何货币政策决定,都会对全球经济和全球资产产生影响。由于大宗商品以美元定价,随着投资者重新平衡投资组合,对资产价格的冲击必然会传导。现在,黄金价格的走势还取决于其他因素。在此背景下,我们研究了美国货币政策对印度黄金价格的影响,并试图研究美联储在疫情期间宣布的货币政策如何影响国内黄金价格。进一步,我们使用ARDL模型研究了国内黄金价格的决定因素,发现价格与全球经济政策的不确定性密切相关,从而显示出其避险特征,并随着国内CPI通胀而上涨,从而证明了它是一种通胀对冲。因此,该研究有望提升对投资者对黄金行为的理解,以及不确定性下的信息处理。JEL分类:G10, G15。
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The Impact of Advanced Economy Monetary Policy on Gold Price Dynamics in India
Gold remains a dynamic investment tool in many economies and is considered a safe- haven during times of crises. The sheer size of the US economy and hence any monetary policy decisions have implications for the global economy and global assets. Since commodities are priced in the US dollar, transmission of shocks to asset prices is bound to happen as investors rebalance portfolio. Now, the direction of movement in gold prices depends on other factors as well. Against this backdrop, we examine the impact of US monetary policy on gold prices in India and try to examine how monetary policy announcements during the pandemic by the Fed has influenced domestic gold prices. Further, we investigate the determinants of domestic gold prices using an ARDL model and find that prices have moved closely with global economic policy uncertainty, thereby demonstrating its safe haven feature and have risen with domestic CPI inflation, thus proving to be an inflation hedge. Thus, the study is expected to upgrade the understanding on the behaviour of investors towards gold, and information processing under uncertainty. JEL Classification: G10, G15.
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