{"title":"德国经常账户盈余与克鲁格曼、沃尔夫的批判","authors":"G. Erber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2350759","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Global structural imbalances in international trade have become a major topic in particular after the Great financial and economic crisis in 2008. China and Germany have been running major balance of trade in goods and services surpluses as well as balance of current account surpluses in the past decade. Contrary other countries including the US on top have run major current account deficits at the same time. Now, after some time of quarreling about the global recovery, this debate on – how to correct for those global imbalances – is back on the transatlantic agenda. This time Germany is the major villain, because last year Germany's current account surplus reached a 7 percent to GDP level. However, this is already rebalancing and the future new German government is planning policy measures like a major increase in public infrastructure investments, introducing a minimum wage for the whole economy, increasing public spending in education and training, which would stimulate domestic demand and growth in Germany in the coming year. The paper looks at the empirical facts of the past couple of years related to the rebalancing of international imbalances already under way. It confronts these findings with the harsh critique of Paul Krugman published in the New York Times, who blames German politics as the major source for the current global imbalances. Looking at the facts much of the blame Krugman addresses on misguided German politics cannot be confirmed to be in line with the available statistics and most recent forecasts.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2013-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The German Current Account Surplus and Krugman’s and Wolff’s Critique\",\"authors\":\"G. Erber\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.2350759\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Global structural imbalances in international trade have become a major topic in particular after the Great financial and economic crisis in 2008. China and Germany have been running major balance of trade in goods and services surpluses as well as balance of current account surpluses in the past decade. Contrary other countries including the US on top have run major current account deficits at the same time. Now, after some time of quarreling about the global recovery, this debate on – how to correct for those global imbalances – is back on the transatlantic agenda. This time Germany is the major villain, because last year Germany's current account surplus reached a 7 percent to GDP level. However, this is already rebalancing and the future new German government is planning policy measures like a major increase in public infrastructure investments, introducing a minimum wage for the whole economy, increasing public spending in education and training, which would stimulate domestic demand and growth in Germany in the coming year. The paper looks at the empirical facts of the past couple of years related to the rebalancing of international imbalances already under way. It confronts these findings with the harsh critique of Paul Krugman published in the New York Times, who blames German politics as the major source for the current global imbalances. Looking at the facts much of the blame Krugman addresses on misguided German politics cannot be confirmed to be in line with the available statistics and most recent forecasts.\",\"PeriodicalId\":197385,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2013-11-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2350759\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2350759","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
特别是2008年国际金融经济大危机之后,全球国际贸易结构性失衡成为一个重要话题。近10年来,中德两国货物和服务贸易均保持较大顺差,经常项目也保持较大顺差。相反,包括美国在内的其他国家同时出现了巨额经常账户赤字。如今,在围绕全球经济复苏争论了一段时间之后,这场关于如何纠正全球失衡的辩论又回到了大西洋两岸的议程上。这一次,德国成了罪魁祸首,因为去年德国的经常账户盈余达到了GDP的7%。然而,这已经在重新平衡,未来的新一届德国政府正在规划政策措施,比如大幅增加公共基础设施投资,为整个经济引入最低工资标准,增加教育和培训方面的公共支出,这些措施将在未来一年刺激德国的国内需求和增长。本文考察了过去几年与已在进行的国际失衡再平衡相关的经验事实。它将这些发现与保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)在《纽约时报》(New York Times)上发表的严厉批评进行了对比。克鲁格曼指责德国政治是当前全球失衡的主要根源。从事实来看,克鲁格曼对德国政治误入歧途的指责,很多都不能证实与现有的统计数据和最新的预测相符。
The German Current Account Surplus and Krugman’s and Wolff’s Critique
Global structural imbalances in international trade have become a major topic in particular after the Great financial and economic crisis in 2008. China and Germany have been running major balance of trade in goods and services surpluses as well as balance of current account surpluses in the past decade. Contrary other countries including the US on top have run major current account deficits at the same time. Now, after some time of quarreling about the global recovery, this debate on – how to correct for those global imbalances – is back on the transatlantic agenda. This time Germany is the major villain, because last year Germany's current account surplus reached a 7 percent to GDP level. However, this is already rebalancing and the future new German government is planning policy measures like a major increase in public infrastructure investments, introducing a minimum wage for the whole economy, increasing public spending in education and training, which would stimulate domestic demand and growth in Germany in the coming year. The paper looks at the empirical facts of the past couple of years related to the rebalancing of international imbalances already under way. It confronts these findings with the harsh critique of Paul Krugman published in the New York Times, who blames German politics as the major source for the current global imbalances. Looking at the facts much of the blame Krugman addresses on misguided German politics cannot be confirmed to be in line with the available statistics and most recent forecasts.