Russia's Return to the Gulf

Russia’s recent engagement in the Middle East is often ascribed to geo-political and/or geo-economic motivations. This chapter will instead argue that Russia’s political and economic behaviors in the Arabian Gulf are not part of a grand, pro-active geo-political or geo-economic strategy per se, but are merely opportunistic reactions. In fact, Russia’s primary goal in its interactions with this region is defensive - to prevent blowback to Putin’s regime stability caused by conflicts in the Middle East. The chapter will then outline the policy implications of this perspective for countries in the Arabian Gulf seeking to balance extra-regional powers against one another. One of these is that economic incentives, such as the purchase of arms or nuclear reactors from Russia, may have little desired effect since Russia privileges its regime stability to commercial logic. Another is that it could be wishful thinking to imagine that Russia can fill the regional vacuum left by a scaled-down American security presence – Russia is unwilling, uninterested, and unable to do so.