发电投资规划和风险管理在巴尼背景下

G. Casaravilla, R. Chaer, Ximena Caporale
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文分析了发电投资规划人员在BANI环境下工作所面临的困难。发电系统是脆弱的,非线性的,具有随机的组件,有时是不可理解的,这构成了BANI的背景。这种背景为计划者创造了一种焦虑的氛围,无论是做决定还是不做决定,但最重要的是不知道如何以及谁将通过观察从大量可能的编年史中发生的事件编年史来评估他们的工作。本文分析了一个具体的例子,以及规避风险的计划者不采用最佳实践的后果,以减轻未来可能对其工作的批评。
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Generation Investment Planning and Risk Management in BANI context
This paper analyzes the difficulties that power generation investment planners face working in the BANI context. Electricity generation systems are fragile, non-linear, with random components and at times incomprehensible, which makes up the BANI context. This context generates a climate of anxiety for the planner, both for making decisions and for not making them, but more than anything for not knowing how and who will evaluate their work in the future by observing the chronicle of events that have occurred from the wide set of possible chronicles. A concrete example and the consequences of a risk-averse planner not adopting best practices are analyzed in order to mitigate possible future criticism of his work.
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