基于统计数据的流感疫苗接种社会效益计算

Péter Vajó, Z. Bács
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摘要

我们在研究中设定的目标在匈牙利或国际文献中都没有先例:我们的目的是根据事实量化流感疫苗接种的有效性,并确定由于接种疫苗而未发生的疾病的数量。我们在研究中评估了2018/2019年流感季节的数据。我们分析了现有的人口、疫苗接种和疾病数量的数据,并从中得出了客观的结论。这是一个问题,基础数据出现在不同年龄组的不同数据集中,所以我们必须在它们之间找到共识,建立可比较的年龄组。最后,我们定义了三个不同的年龄组:未成年人年龄组(0-18岁),经济活跃年龄组(19-59岁)和60岁以上年龄组。这三个年龄组通过人口、疫苗接种和发病率得到了很好的区分。我们描述了流感疾病的一般情况,流感病毒的特点和变异性。我们定义了典型的受影响年龄组,需要治疗的患者数量,以及过去5-10年的趋势。所提出的事实、数字、计算结果和得出的结论清楚地表明——排除主观因素——疫苗接种的预防效果和有效性,这是匈牙利文献中首次对其进行量化。
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Calculation of Social Benefits of Influenza Vaccination based on Statistical Data
The goal we set in our study has had no precedent either in the Hungarian or in the international literature: our intention was to quantify the effectiveness of influenza vaccination based on facts, and to define the number of non-occurred diseases as a result of vaccination. We evaluated data from the influenza season of 2018/2019 in our study. We analyzed the available data on population, vaccination and the number of diseases, and drew objective conclusions therefrom. It was a problem that the basic data appeared in different data sets for different age groups, so we had to find a consensus between them, and establish comparable age groups. Ultimately, we defined three distinct age groups: the age group of minors (0-18 years), the economically active (19-59 years) and the age group of over 60 years. These three age groups became well distinguishable by population, vaccination, and morbidity. We described the influenza disease in general, the characteristics and variability of the influenza virus. We defined the typically affected age group, the number of patients to be treated, the trends for the past 5-10 years. The presented facts, numbers, the results of the calculations, and the conclusions drawn clearly show – excluding subjectivity – the preventive effect and effectiveness of vaccination, which was quantified for the first time in Hungarian literature.
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