气候变化交流研究手册简介

D. Holmes
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在21世纪传播气候变化从未像现在这样紧迫。科学是可行的,解决方案是已知的,但沟通远远不足以应对问题的严重性,目前的排放途径正在迅速走向一个对人类和数百万已经受到影响的物种更加危险的气候。科学家对气候变化有足够的了解,可以向政治家和政策制定者提出问题的严重性及其解决方案。这一科学为诸如政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)和联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)等组织制定气候政策建议的全球过程提供了信息。但是,对于赤道和小岛屿国家等许多最脆弱地区以外的国家来说,气候变化在空间和时间上都被认为是遥远的,即使在拥有强大的公共利益新闻和调查报道的国家也是如此。对他们来说,气候变化的大部分过程是无法用感官感知的,而且很少有人了解气候敏感性的本质——人类活动产生的吸热气体造成的全球平均温度的微小变化,就能迅速导致一种与人类居住不相容的气候,并成为几乎所有生物的不适宜栖息地。消费文化的全球化,以及它所需要的能源密集型基础设施,已经把许多发达国家从需求的直接强迫中解放出来。但是,只有通过化石燃料能源对自然的开发,才能使这一切成为可能,这些能源为工业生产力提供了超强的动力。或者,正如气候专栏作家乔治·蒙比尔特(George Monbiot)今天所说的那样:“我们生活在生态约束和生态灾难之间短暂的历史插曲中”(Monbiot 2006,第6页)。由于这些工业活动,人类排放的温室气体浓度使气候变化的速度是自然速度的170倍。曾经需要8500年才能完成的事情现在只需要50年。随着工业化,全新世的世界——一万年相对稳定的气候使人类文明得以发展——突然结束了。相反,我们现在生活在“人类世”,温室气体排放实际上是地球大气的一种地球工程,为气候系统增加了危险的能量,并使地球遭受数百年的极端气候影响。
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Introduction to the Research handbook on communicating climate change
Communicating climate change in the twenty-first century has never been more pressing. The science is in, the solutions known, but the communication is not nearly adequate to the gravity of the issue, and current emissions pathways are rapidly hurtling towards a climate ever more dangerous for humans and millions of species that are already being affected. Scientists know enough about climate change to advise politicians and policy makers of the scale of the problem and its solutions. The science informs global processes of arriving at climate policy recommendations by groups such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But for many outside the most vulnerable regions, such as equatorial and small island nations, climate change is seen to be distant in space and time, even in countries with strong public interest journalism and investigative reporting. For them, most of the processes of climate change are not available to the senses, and few understand the nature of climate sensitivity – where just a small change in global average temperature, caused by heat-trapping gases from human activity, can rapidly lead to a climate that is incompatible with human settlement and an unsuitable habitat for nearly all living things. The globalization of consumer culture, and the energy-intensive infrastructure that it requires, has emancipated much of the developed world from the direct compulsion of need. But this has only been made possible by the exploitation of nature through fossil fuel energy sources that have super-charged the industrial forces of production. Or, as climate columnist George Monbiot has put it, today: ‘We inhabit the brief historical interlude between ecological constraint and ecological catastrophe’ (Monbiot 2006, p. 6). As a result of these industrial activities, humans have emitted greenhouse gases in concentrations that are changing the climate at 170 times the natural rate. What once took 8500 years to happen now takes only 50. With industrialization, the world of the Holocene – the 10 000 years of relatively stable climate that allowed human civilization to develop – has abruptly ended. Rather, we now live in the ‘Anthropocene’, where greenhouse emissions are effectively a geo-engineering of the Earth’s atmosphere, adding a dangerous amount of energy into the climate system and committing the Earth to hundreds of years of extreme climate impacts.
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