基于蒙特卡罗方法的海上太阳能浮动电站风险分析开发

J. Wirawan, I. Garniwa
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引用次数: 3

摘要

化石能源的使用导致能源储量不断减少,并产生了许多负面影响,如空气污染导致全球变暖。作为一种补救措施,它被开发并试图使用来自太阳辐射的可再生能源或所谓的太阳能。根据IRENA的计算,到2030年,印度尼西亚的太阳能光伏发电潜力为532.6吉瓦,其中140.9吉瓦位于马鲁古和巴布亚。本研究旨在利用蒙特卡罗方法,衡量马鲁古东南部Kei Kecil岛浮动式太阳能电站开发的可能性或风险影响,进行风险评估,使风险得到预期的妥善处理。本研究的范围包括技术、经济、商业、组织和政治方面。根据计算结果,总风险为4.12,处于ALARP区域,经过仿真得到的风险值为3.89,其中影响最大的风险因素是能源成本(CoE)。这项研究的更新是海水中的太阳能电池板技术,位于印度尼西亚的Kei Kecil岛是一个偏远地区。
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Risk Analysis Development of Solar Floating Power Plant in The Sea with Monte Carlo Method
The use of fossil energy has continuously resulted in reduced reserves of energy resources, and many negative impacts such as air pollution that led to global warming. As a remedy to overcome it is developed and attempted to use renewable energy from a source of solar radiation or so-called solar power. According to IRENA calculations in 2030 Indonesia has the potential of solar photo voltaic energy of 532.6 GW of which 140.9 GW is located in the Maluku and Papua. This research is aimed to measure the possibility or risk impact of floating solar power plant development in Kei Kecil Island, Southeast Maluku as risk assessment using Monte Carlo method so that risk can be expected to be handled properly. The scope of this research are technical, economic, commercial, organizational and political aspects. According to the calculation result that the total risk is 4.12 which is in ALARP zone and after simulation got value 3,89 with the most influential risk factor is Cost of Energy (CoE). The renewal of this research is solar panel technology in marine waters with the location of Kei Kecil Island as a remote area in Indonesia.
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