基于神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测方法比较

Linlin Zhuang, H. Liu, Jimin Zhu, Shulin Wang, Yong Song
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引用次数: 21

摘要

本文分析了电力系统负荷数据的周期性和变异性,在进行相关处理时剔除了不良数据,并采用适当的参数作为神经元的约束权。然后利用MATLAB建立了反向传播神经网络和径向基函数神经网络。利用该模型进行了负荷预测,并通过与实际负荷的对比验证了神经网络的有效性和准确性。在此基础上,引入小波分析,将小波分析与神经网络相结合,建立了非紧凑小波分析神经网络,并验证了其有效性。最后,对三种预测方法进行了比较。
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Comparison of forecasting methods for power system short-term load forecasting based on neural networks
In this paper, the periodicity and variation of power system load data has been analysed with bad data removed when correlation process was conducted, and proper parameter has been applied to be the restraint weight of neuron. Then back propagation (BP) neural network and radial basis function (RBF) neural network has been established by means of MATLAB. The load is predicted by the use of model and meanwhile the effectiveness and veracity of the neural network was verified via the comparison with the actual load. On this basis, we introduce the wavelet analysis which was used with the combination of the neural network to establish incompact wavelet analysis neural network of which the effectiveness has been testified. Finally, comparison has been made among the three forecasting methods.
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