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引用次数: 1

摘要

基金的净值受到业绩和市场的影响,研究者试图通过建立不同的模型来量化这些影响,以预测未来的净值。目前的预测模型往往只能反映线性变化规律,处理不善或选择性地忽略了其非线性特性,因此预测结果往往精度较低。本文采用了一种基于ARIMA-LSTM混合模型的基金预测方法。对历史数据进行预处理后,首先用ARIMA模型过滤出线性数据特征,然后将数据传递给LSTM模型,通过残差提取非线性特征,最后将两种模型各自的预测值进行叠加,得到混合模型的预测结果。实证表明,本文方法比传统的基金预测方法具有更高的准确性和适用性。
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Prediction of Fund Net Value Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model
The net value of the fund is affected by performance and market, and the researchers try to quantify these effects to predict the future net value by establishing different models. The current prediction models usually can only reflect the linear variation law, poorly handled or selectively ignore their nonlinear characteristics, so the prediction results are usually less accurate. This paper uses a fund prediction method based on the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model. After preprocessing the historical data, the first filter out the linear data characteristics with the ARIMA model, then pass the data to the LSTM model to extract the nonlinear characteristic by residual, and finally superposition the respective prediction values of the two models to obtain the prediction results of the hybrid model. Empirically shows that the methods in the paper are more accurate and applicable than traditional fund prediction methods.
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