The Cost of Repetition in South Africa

An almost unnoticed problem in the South African education system is the high rate of grade repetition. In this report, a combination of household and administrative datasets is used to identify patterns in learner repetition and dropout in South African schooling and the costs associated with these issues. According to the most conservative estimate, the number of learners in public schools repeating in grades 1 to 12 could have been 1 180 000. In monetary terms, this implies that the cost of having repeaters in the public education system was at least R20 billion (in 2018 prices), absorbing 8% of the total national budget allocated to basic education in 2018/2019. At least a half of these repetition costs is attributed to the high prevalence of repetition in the secondary school phase, with the largest number of repeaters located in grade 10 (at least 1 in every 5 grade 10 learners repeat). Despite the promulgation of repetition policy that limits the number of times learners can repeat a school phase, repetition trends in the past decade display a strong inertia, especially in higher grades. To monitor these trends better, and to track the implementation of these policies, significant improvements will need to be made to the quality of reporting on repeaters and dropout in EMIS data. While repetition is a problem, it is merely a symptom of a weakly functioning education system. The repetition debate is thus secondary to the need to address the quality of the education provided in our schools, and particularly in the foundation phase. Quality improvements will also make it easier to implement sensible policies on repetition and to provide remediation and support where these are needed. Moreover, by freeing resources currently needed to deal with repetition, improved education quality would also make remediation more feasible.