Evaluación del impacto de políticas de seguridad ejercidas entre 2007 y 2014 sobre la tasa de homicidios en Ecuador: Método de Control Sintético (MCS)

From 2007 to 2014, a set of citizen security policies was implemented in Ecuador; this set included mainly: a considerable increase in crime control and punishment strategies combined with situational prevention strategies. This study evaluates the impact of said set of measures on the homicide rate per 100 000 inhabitants by using the synthetic control method (MCS). It is argued that due to the combination of punitive and situational prevention strategies, a significant reduction in the homicide rate per 100 000 inhabitants between 2011 and 2016 was evident, representing around 11 743 homicides avoided. The reduction effect ranges from 5.86 to 17.33 points per year, with a maximum of 17.33 points in 2015. This effect was the result of the accumulation of the effect of the policies, which remained in force after their implementation