乌克兰国家安全风险和威胁评估机构提供中的分析成分

N. Tkachuk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

今天,在许多发达国家,风险评估和国家安全威胁的制度支持中的分析部分是由战略层面的态势中心(SCs)通过对国家安全威胁规划过程的科学分析和预测支持来实施的。另一方面,这些国内态势中心的共同特点是,它们主要是为“手动”模式的操作管理而创建并继续发挥作用。鉴于解决国家安全领域的战略分析和预测任务需要在上述结构中制定有关威胁评估和脆弱性查明的适当分析内容。概述了机构支助乌克兰国家安全风险和威胁评估中分析部分发展的主要问题,可以确定其发展的一些前景领域,特别是:将持续战略监测和分析现有威胁的进程纳入其中;预测对国家安全的威胁程度及其对乌克兰安全和国防部门活动造成的风险,其动态和确定新的威胁;计划应对对国家安全的威胁及其在乌克兰安全和国防部门活动中造成的风险。
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Analytical Component in Institutional Providing of Ukraine National Security Risks and Threats Assessment
Today, in many developed countries, the analytical component in the institutional support of risk assessment and threats to national security is implemented by situational centers (SCs) at the strategic level through scientific-analytical and predictive support of the national security threat planning process. On the other hand, the common feature of such domestic situational centers is that they were created and continue to function mainly for operational management in the «manual» mode. Whereas the solution of the tasks of strategic analysis and forecasting in the field of national security requires the development of appropriate analytical content in the above-mentioned structures regarding threat assessment and identification of vulnerabilities. The outlined main problems of development of the analytical component in the institutional support Ukraine national security risks and threats assessment allow to identify a number of perspective areas of its development, in particular: inclusion in the process of continuous strategic monitoring and analysis of existing threats; forecasting the level of threats to national security and the risks they cause in the activities of the security and defense sector of Ukraine, their dynamics and the identification of new threats; planning to counter threats to national security and the risks caused by them in the activities of the security and defense sector of Ukraine.
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