选择实验中的假设偏见缓解:廉价谈话和诚实启动的有效性随着重复选择而减弱

Gregory Howard, B. Roe, E. Nisbet, Jay F. Martin
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引用次数: 19

摘要

我们设计了一个选择实验,比较减少伊利湖农业养分污染和有害藻华的政策,并通过在线调查小组对俄亥俄州居民进行管理。我们比较了两种已经被发现可以减轻假设性偏见的治疗方法,廉价谈话和诚实启动。我们发现,在廉价谈话干预后立即做出的选择中,受访者对价格的敏感度更高。当做出额外的选择时,价格敏感性降低,并最终与对照处理中的受访者的价格敏感性相匹配。我们在我们的在线选择实验中以及在de-Magistris、Gracia和Nayga (2013, DNG)进行的面对面选择实验的受访者中发现了这种效应。与对照组相比,我们在线实施的诚实启动干预在价格敏感性方面没有显著变化。虽然DGN(2013)实施了诚实启动干预,完全减轻了面对面设置中的假设偏差,但我们表明这种效果也是短暂的,并且在后来的选择练习中,我们不能拒绝诚实启动与对照之间相等的零假设。我们的研究结果表明,当受访者面临多项选择任务时,需要额外的工作来适应在线设置的启动干预措施,并扩展流行的假设偏见缓解技术的有效性。
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Hypothetical Bias Mitigation in Choice Experiments: Effectiveness of Cheap Talk and Honesty Priming Fade with Repeated Choices
We design a choice experiment comparing policies that reduce agricultural nutrient pollution and harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie and administer it to Ohio residents using an online survey panel. We compare two treatments that have been found to mitigate hypothetical bias, cheap talk and honesty priming. We find greater sensitivity to price among respondents during choices made immediately following the cheap talk intervention. As additional choices are made, price sensitivity diminishes and eventually matches that of respondents in the control treatment. We find this effect in both our online choice experiments and among respondents to face-to-face choice experiments conducted by de-Magistris, Gracia and Nayga (2013, DNG). Our online implementation of an honesty priming intervention yields no significant change in price sensitivity compared to a control. While DGN (2013) implement an honesty priming intervention that fully mitigates hypothetical bias in a face-to-face setting, we show this effect is also transient, and in later choice exercises we cannot reject the null hypothesis of equality between honesty priming and the control. Our results suggest additional work is required to adapt priming interventions for online settings and to extend the effectiveness of popular hypothetical bias mitigation techniques when respondents face multiple choice tasks.
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