墨西哥石油开采活动分析及行业展望

Julieta Evangelina Sánchez-Cano, María de Jesús RAMOS-ÁLVAREZ, Jaime Antonio RUIZ-HERNÁNDEZ,
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引用次数: 0

摘要

采掘主义是一种经济增长模式,其基础是对初级自然资源的开采,包括石油在内的初级自然资源几乎没有经过改造,可以在世界市场上出售。包括墨西哥在内的几个国家被纳入采掘模式,以获得尽可能高的收入,从而为其工业化和发展提供资金;另一方面,这些资源也被用来支付不断增长的公共开支。本研究工作的目的是确定石油开采对墨西哥经济增长的影响。利用普通最小二乘法建立了一个计量经济模型,分析了1990-2020年这段时间。所获得的结果表明,由于石油开采对公共财政的高度依赖产生了负面影响,此外,由于墨西哥开采模式缺乏转型和改进,在经济中产生了负面影响,如果不加以解决,可能引发多米诺骨牌效应,使石油部门损失更大,这可能导致国家风险增加,使该国中期的经济和社会状况恶化。
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Analysis of oil extractivism in Mexico and industry perspectives
The extractivism is an economic growth model based on the exploitation of primary natural resources, little transformed, including oil, to be sold on the world market. Several countries, including Mexico, were inserted into an extractivist model, to obtain the highest possible income, through which their industrialization and development were financed; on the other hand, these resources have also been used to pay for growing public spending. The objective of this research work is to determine the impact of oil extractivism on the economic growth of Mexico. For which an econometric model was developed, by ordinary least squares, analyzing the period of time 1990-2020. The results obtained show negative effects associated with a high dependence on public finances toward oil extractivism, in addition, derived from the lack of transformation and improvements of the Mexican extractivism model, negative impacts are generated in the economy that, if not addressed, can trigger a domino effect with greater losses for the oil sector, which could lead to increasing the country risk, an aggravating the economic and social situation of the country in the medium term.
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