对气候变化的感知和适应反应:东开普省阿马托勒区市小农养殖户的评估

O. Popoola, N. Monde, S. Yusuf
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引用次数: 8

摘要

牲畜是许多农村贫困人口的一项重要资产,然而,当前的气候危机正在影响畜牧农民。为了评估农民对气候变化的看法及其对生产和适应反应的影响,进行了一项横断面家庭调查。采用多阶段抽样方法,从研究区18个村庄共选取142名小农。使用了描述性和推断性统计工具,观察到的结果表明,在过去25年里,该地区的降雨量急剧下降。一些可感知的影响包括植被贫瘠和放牧受限、水资源短缺、牲畜生长速度、体重、产奶量和繁殖率下降。结果表明,在众多可选措施中,采取的唯一应对措施是改变放牧路线、增加放牧距离、减少放养、收集和储存水以及增加对社会福利的依赖,因此适应响应是有限的。对农民对他们所采取的应对措施的看法的检查表明,没有一项应对措施被认为是显着有效的。缺乏对气候变化危机的有效应对是一个令人担忧的问题,因为畜牧业是该地区特有的产业,是家庭和整个社区的生计来源。关键词:干旱,有效性,感知,风险
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Perception And Adaptation Responses To Climate Change: An Assessment Of Smallholder Livestock Farmers In Amathole District Municipality, Eastern Cape Province
Livestock is a critical asset for many rural poor, however, the current climate crisis is affecting livestock farmers. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in order to assess the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, and its impact on production and adaptation responses. Using a multistage sampling procedure, a total of 142 smallholder livestock farmers were selected from 18 villages across the study area. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools were used and the observed results showed that there has been a perceived drastic decline in rainfall in the area over the last 25 years. Some of the perceived impacts were poor vegetation and limited grazing, scarcity of water resources, decreased livestock growth rate, weight, milk production and reproduction rates. Adaptation responses were limited as the results showed that the only response measures taken amongst the many options available were changing grazing routes, increasing grazing distances, destocking, water harvesting and storage, and increased dependence on social welfare. An examination of farmers’ perceptions of their adopted responses showed that none of the response measures were perceived as significantly effective. The lack of effective response to the climate change crisis is a cause for concern, as the livestock industry is endemic to the region and sustains families and entire communities. Keywords: Drought, Effectiveness, Perception, Risks
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