应对气候变化:系统工程视角下的系统研究研讨会

K. Hipel
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引用次数: 3

摘要

提出了一种基于系统的系统(SoS)工程框架的负责任治理的综合适应性方法,以应对气候变化,该框架反映了使用参与式方法的利益相关者的价值观,并实现了理想的系统目标,如弹性、可持续性和公平性。目前,世界正在经历一场“公地大气悲剧”,每个国家都在故意释放致命的温室气体,为了自私地最大化自己的经济利益,不惜破坏“公地大气”,从而造成严重的气候变化,这将对全球所有国家产生不利影响。为了克服这种战略上不明智的个人行为,建议采取一种合作的良好治理方法,从长远来看,这将使每个国家在经济上受益,更重要的是,满足道德体系的目标。更具体地说,詹姆斯·汉森(James Hansen)等人提出的“费用和红利”(Fee and Dividend)概念是解决气候变化棘手的战略决策方面的一个真正有见地、但简单的方法:(1)在碳排放源或首次销售点征税(Fee)。(2)将100%的税收统一分配给所有公民(红利)。(3)协商每个国家的税收水平(责任)。(4)随着时间的推移增加税收,并结合更严格的法规,使大气碳积累达到规定的水平(生存)。与诸如限额和交易等其他替代办法相比,“费用和红利”的想法可能构成处理气候变化的可行和明智方法的基础,就像1987年《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》及其扩展版本一样,构成了在臭氧空洞达到不可逆转的地步之前合作控制其规模的特殊国际协定。事实上,全世界的公民都非常感谢那些真正杰出的科学家,包括马里奥·莫利纳(Mario Molina)、保罗·克鲁岑(Paul Crutzen)和弗兰克·罗兰(Frank Rowland),他们因为解释了氟氯化碳是如何造成臭氧层空洞而获得了1995年的诺贝尔化学奖。事实上,负责任的治理不仅需要积极应对气候变化和臭氧层空洞,还需要解决许多其他高度相互关联的复杂社会问题,如失败的美国金融体系、日益扩大的贫富差距、不公平的医疗体系、不负责任的能源生产和使用、自然和社会系统的广泛污染,以及不可靠的老化基础设施。因此,迫切需要进行广泛的研究,以建立一个全面的系统科学与工程系统理论结构,以适当地解决当前和新出现的复杂系统问题。
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Tackling climate change: A system of systems engineering perspective a research seminar by
An integrative and adaptive approach to Responsible Governance is put forward for addressing climate change based on a System of Systems (SoS) Engineering framework that reflects the values of stakeholders using a participatory approach and achieves desirable systems goals such as resilience, sustainability and fairness. Currently, the world is suffering from an “Atmospheric Tragedy of the Commons” in which every nation is knowingly releasing deadly greenhouse gases in order to selfishly maximize its own economic benefits at the expense of destroying the “Atmospheric Commons” and thereby causing severe climate change which will adversely affect all countries around the globe. To overcome this strategically unwise type of individual behavior, a cooperative approach to good governance is suggested which will benefit every nation economically in the long term and, more importantly, satisfy ethical systems objectives. More specifically, the “Fee and Dividend” concept devised by James Hansen and others is suggested as a truly insightful, yet simple, method for solving the tough strategic decision-making aspects of climate change via: (1) Taxing carbon at its source or point of first sale (Fee). (2) Distributing 100% of this tax uniformly to all citizens (Dividend). (3) Negotiating a level of tax for each nation (Liability). (4) Increasing the tax over time in combination with stricter regulations to bring atmospheric carbon accumulation to a stipulated level (Survival). When compared to other alternatives, such as Cap and Trade, the “Fee and Dividend” idea may form the basis of a feasible and sensible method for handling climate change in the same way that the 1987 “Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer”, and its extended versions thereof, constitute exceptional international agreements for cooperatively controlling the size of the ozone hole before it reached the point of no return. Indeed, the citizens of the world are most grateful to the truly remarkable scientists, consisting of Mario Molina, Paul Crutzen and Frank Rowland, who received the 1995 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for explaining how CFCs created the ozone hole. In fact, responsible governance is not only needed in proactively combating climate change and the ozone hole but in many other highly interconnected complex SoS problems such as the failed American financial system, growing gap between the rich and poor, unfair medical systems, irresponsible energy production and usage, widespread pollution of both natural and societal systems, and unreliable aging infrastructure. Accordingly, extensive research is urgently needed for developing a comprehensive theoretical structure for System of Systems Science and Engineering for suitably solving current and emerging complex systems problems.
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