年龄结构生物经济模型的优化:招募、体重增加和环境影响

Yuanming Ni
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摘要

越来越多的渔业研究人员开始认识到,在制定管理准则时,一维生物量模型可能会遗漏关键信息。对于更复杂的年龄结构模型,许多参数需要适当的估计或合理的假设。本文研究了鱼类种群的增收方式和环境影响对鱼群最优开发利用的影响。基于东北大西洋鲭鱼的离散时间年龄结构生物经济模型,我们介绍了产生这一问题的6种情景的机制。使用最简单的场景,在8种不同的参数组合下进行优化。然后,对每个场景进行求解,并以恒定的捕捞死亡率进行模拟。研究发现,环境波动率越高,净利润越高,但达到平均值的概率越低。任何有利于老鱼的参数组合都倾向于采用脉冲捕鱼模式。模拟结果表明,恒定的捕鱼死亡率在0.06左右是最佳的。最优捕捞量与历史捕捞量的比较表明,在70%以上的情况下,最优捕捞量先于历史捕捞量,净利润提高43%,捕捞成本降低34%。
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Optimization of Age-Structured Bioeconomic Model: Recruitment, Weight Gain and Environmental Effects
More and more fishery researchers begin to acknowledge that one-dimensional biomass models may omit key information when generating management guidelines. For the more complicated age-structured models, numerous parameters require a proper estimation or a reasonable assumption. In this paper, the effects of recruitment patterns and environmental impacts on the optimal exploitation of a fish population are investigated. Based on a discrete-time age-structured bioeconomic model of Northeast Atlantic mackerel, we introduce the mechanisms that generate 6 scenarios of the problem. Using the simplest scenario, optimizations are conducted under 8 different parameter combinations. Then, the problem is solved for each scenario and simulations are conducted with constant fishing mortalities. It is found that a higher environmental volatility leads to more net profits but with a lower probability of achieving the mean values. Any parameter combination that favours the older fish tends to lend itself to pulse fishing pattern. The simulations indicate that a constant fishing mortality around 0.06 performs the best. A comparison between the optimal and the historical harvest shows that for more than 70% of the time, the optimal exploitation precedes the historical one, leading to 43% higher net profit and 34% lower fishing cost.
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