基于GERT的航天运载火箭项目可靠性分析

S. Aytulun, M. Ermis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估基于网络的项目的可靠性通常涉及密集的模拟练习,以随机生成和评估不同可能的网络状态。本文提出了一种近似网络可靠性的算法,可以最大限度地减少仿真过程的使用。为此,利用项目调度技术对具有网络特性的空间午餐车项目进行了分析。因此,项目过程被描述为网络,通过网络特性建模和定时,并使用基于项目的过程调度方法GERT进行随机分析。通过一系列的计算实验验证了该方法的有效性和鲁棒性。实验研究还表明,该模型可以有效地应用于许多实际场景。
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Space launch vehicle project reliability analysis by using GERT
Evaluating the reliability of a network based project often involves an intensive simulation exercise to randomly generate and evaluate different possible network states. This paper proposes an algorithm to approximate the network reliability which minimizes the use of such simulation procedure. For this purpose, a space lunch vehicle project with network properties is analyzed using project scheduling techniques. Thus, the project processes are described as networks, modeled and timed by network properties and stochastically analysed using GERT, a project based process scheduling method. A set of computation experiments are conducted to employ the effectiveness and robustness of our GERT-based solution. The experimental study also indicates that our model can be effectively deployed in many practical scenarios.
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