能源部门建模的集成MARKAL-EFOM系统(TIMES)模型

Signe Allena-Ozoliņa, Ieva Pakere, D. Jaunzems, A. Blumberga, G. Bažbauers
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引用次数: 3

摘要

随着气候目标变得越来越重要,在政策规划中需要适当的支持性工具。TIMES模型是能源情景分析的有力工具,可以评估潜在政策措施的影响。本文介绍了使用TIMES模型对拉脱维亚能源部门建模的方法和结果。为了分析电力和供暖部门的进一步发展,比较了三种不同的情景-参考情景,不包括现有的税收政策,基线情景,考虑现有的政策措施,情景包括国家能源和气候计划中定义的不同政策措施,直到2030年。
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Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) Model for Energy Sector Modelling
As climate targets become more critical, an appropriate supportive tools in policy planning are needed. TIMES model is powerful tool for energy scenario analysis allowing assess the impact of potential policy measures. The paper presents the methodology and results for energy sector modelling of Latvia by using TIMES model. To analyse further development of electricity and heating sector, three different scenarios have been compared - reference scenario, which excludes the existing tax policy, baseline scenario which considers the existing policy measures and the scenario which includes different policy measures defined in the National Energy and Climate plan until 2030.
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