Volatility Spillover of the Exchange Rate and the Global Economy on Iran Stock Market

Financial markets are one of the most fundamental markets in any country. In the financial markets, the securities market and the foreign exchange market are sensitive sectors. These two markets are affected by fluctuations and economic cycles, so reflect economic changes rapidly. Changes in the returns of one market due to arbitrage conditions during time lead to changes in the performances of other markets. This paper by dividing the spillover effect into two parts, mean effect and volatility effect, employing DCC-GARCH method, aimed to capture the spillover effects of dollar return, global market, and Iran financial market in the period 1394-1398. Mean conditional results show that stock returns react negatively to dollar returns. In other words, there is a substitution between dollar returns and stock returns among economic agents. For the global economy, the stock market returns decrease with the fluctuations of the global economy index. Still, for the dollar, the relationship is reversed, so that increase in the global economy index volatility increases the dollar return. For the volatility spillover, the results also supported substantial spillover between each market pairs.